Yesterday was cool, rainy and still all day. It was just a generally wet day. I totally botched the forecast yesterday, as it cleared up, only to cloud up and rain again. Sorry, guys.
Currently, it is mostly sunny, with a few light clouds. It is cool and still over Socorro this morning. I took a photo of the sunrise:
…and one of M-Mountain at sunrise.
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a partly sunny day, with a high temperature of 51 F. The winds will be from the northeast at 5 mph, becoming northwest by this afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 31 F. The winds will be from the west at 5 mph. The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook, concerning strong to damaging winds later this week. No severe weather is expected today.
The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.
The enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows no thick clouds over the state today. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The water vapor imagery shows that there is some moisture available, coming from the Pacific.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows damp sounding below 550 mb this morning. Overall, there was 0.38 inches of precipitable water present in the column. There was 3 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -6 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 7.0 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 13 kts of low-level shear (a mix of speed and directional changes) and 18 kts of deep-layer shear (a mix of speed and directional changes) this morning.
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cool temperatures, high humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions), light winds, and cloudy skies over the entire state this morning. There are no major frontal boundaries over the state so far this morning.
The surface pressure chart shows that the stable air mass we are under today. The pressure is slightly high, and there are no strong gradients over the state this morning. The RAP shows that the pressure will remain slightly high, and no strong gradients are expected to develop over the next six hours.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows that the upper-level low will reform over Arizona and drift into the southern part of the state by this afternoon. This will slow upper-level flow as we enter the middle of the trough.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows some moderate Positive Vorticity Advection (PVA) as a local vorticity maxima moves out of southwest Texas and clips the southeastern corner of New Mexico this afternoon.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows some rapidly-rising just ahead of the PVA in that same southeastern corner of the state today. This may cause some precipitation by this afternoon.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Precipitation chart shows that there is some precipitation possible over much of the state today, though some of this may be a heavy dew.
I am not expecting much precipitation today in the Socorro and Magdalena area. I also don’t expect a major warming trend today; some sun, and not much drying out as the humidity in the boundary layer is still quite high. The winds will remain still, based on the lack of pressure gradients today, which will also keep things damp.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC