Long Range Forecasting: 1/15/17-1/22/17

It is time to look ahead at the long range forecast, as told by the GFS model.

The 300 mb GFS charts show that we never really escape troughs this week.  We don’t seem to ever be in a ridge, only a brief zonal-flow period between troughs.  I posted the 300 mb chart for Tuesday, though almost every day this week is near one trough or another.

The 500 mb GFS charts show that the strongest Positive Vorticity Advection (PVA) will occur Friday night and Saturday morning, ahead of yet another trough.

The 700 mb GFS charts show some rapidly-rising air ahead of the trough and PVA Saturday morning.  Could this be another winter storm?

The 850 mb GFS charts show no strong thermal advection over this time period, though there may be a slight cooling by Sunday morning.  It may not be enough for winter weather in the Albuquerque area, but I will be keeping my eye on this.

The Precipitation charts show that we are likely in store for another rainy weekend.  Depending on how the temperature changes, there may be some winter weather mixed in, but precipitation is likely over much of the state starting Friday.

Thank you for reading my post.

GFS Model Data is from Unisys Weather


About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Local WX, Models and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )


Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.