Yesterday was cool, breezy and partly sunny. In the evening and early morning hours, it was quite windy along my commute through Albuquerque and at my home in Rio Rancho.
Currently, it is cloudy, cool and still. Here is a photo of the sunrise over Albuquerque:
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 63 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph, becoming south in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 34 F, and winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph. The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning gusty winds over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, decreasing through the day, but then increasing again tonight. There is also a Winter Storm Warning for the north-central mountains. The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below.
The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.
The enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows that there are a few clouds over the state this morning. They are not very thick, with warm, low tops.
The water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is ample moisture drifting the state from the west.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a nearly-saturated layer at around 500 mb, but there is less moisture available than yesterday. There was 0.28 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH). There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 5.2 C/km.
The hodograph shows 37 kts of low-level shear (mostly directional changes) and 97 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly speed changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cold temperatures, moderate humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions), light winds, and mostly clear skies. There are no major frontal boundaries present on this chart so far this morning.
The surface pressure chart shows that the central mountain chain and the northeastern corner of the state are still under a moderate pressure gradient. The RAP shows that this gradient will decrease throughout the day.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows zonal flow over the state today. The jetstream deformed and the jetstreak is now much farther north, instead of Arizona and New Mexico.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows no significant vorticity advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows no rapidly-rising air over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows no significant thermal advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Precipitation chart shows no precipitation over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
Socorro will likely remain quite cloudy and yet precipitation-free today. I am expecting that today will not be as breezy in Socorro or the Albuquerque Metro area as it was last night.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC