Yesterday was cool, breezy and sunny. I needed two coats and sunglasses to be outside yesterday, as the sun reflecting off the snow made it extra bright.
Currently, it is sunny, cold and still. There is still snow left outside, but it has begun to sublimate. As you can see, the roads are clear. There are some light clouds, perhaps forming from the sublimation of the snow that has recondensed aloft.
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 42 F. The winds will be from the south at 5 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 26 F, and winds will be from the southeast at 5 mph. The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning the bitter cold, and even windy conditions in the eastern part of the state.
The visible satellite imagery shows some clouds over the state, though, once again, some of this is snow. Interestingly enough, the three long bands that extend west into Texas are snow. I animated the image and they never change.
The enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows that all clouds in the state have low, warm tops.
The water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is uniform moisture and no major disturbances over the state today.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a cold, dry atmosphere, with an incredibly dry layer of air from 750 mb to 550 mb. There was only 0.09 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH). There was a large, deep thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 1.3 C/km.
The hodograph shows 11 kts of low-level shear (mostly directional changes) and 87 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly speed changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cold temperatures, relatively low humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions), light winds, and mostly clear skies. This data is several hours old, as the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map is not updating properly.
The surface pressure chart shows us under the influence of high pressure this morning. There are no strong pressure gradients over the state so far this morning. The RAP shows that a moderate pressure gradient may develop in the southern part of the state over the next six hours, but again, this data is old as well.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows northwesterly to zonal flow over the state today as we are exiting the west side of a broad trough. Flow aloft is much weaker today, as compared to yesterday, as the trough moves east.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows no major vorticity advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows no rapidly-rising air over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows no significant thermal advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Precipitation chart shows no additional precipitation today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
Rio Rancho will remain cold and clear today, with some clouds forming this evening. Today will be precipitation-free.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC