Ohio Weather: 12/31/16

Yesterday was cold, and breezy, with increased cloudiness towards the evening.  We didn’t get much lake effect snow after all, and we even drove northeast of Cleveland.  I’d say my forecast yesterday was a bust.

This morning near Lodi, OH, the weather is cold, windy, and overcast.  Most of the snow has blown away or sublimated.

The National Weather Service (NWS) in Cleveland, OH, forecasts (for Lodi) a cloudy day, with a 70% chance of rain after 3 pm and a high temperature of 42 F. The winds will be 21 mph from the southwest.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, and the rain will most likely switch to snow.  There is a 60% chance of precipitation and a low temperature of 24 F.  Winds will be from the west at around 5-15 mph.  The NWS has issued wind-related warnings for Lake Erie, as well as Special Weather Statements about gusty winds inland.  This is shown in the NWS graphic below:

The visible satellite imagery shows dense cloud cover over the state today.

The enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows a few thicker clouds in clusters over the eastern part of the state.  It does not take a very thick cloud to produce snow.

The water vapor imagery shows uniform moisture over the state.

The 12Z sounding from Detroit, MI, shows a less humid atmosphere in the boundary layer as compared to yesterday.  However, there was more moisture aloft and the temperature was slightly warmer.  This led to 0.38 inches of precipitable water present in the column on the west side of Lake Erie. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH).  There was a moderate thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 3.0 C/km.

The hodograph shows 47 kts of low-level shear (mostly directional changes) and 94 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cold temperatures, cloudy skies, low to moderate humidity (as shown by low surface dewpoint depressions) and strong westerly winds.  The Doppler Radar overlay shows a few bands of falling precipitation.  There are no major frontal boundaries present over the state today.

The surface pressure chart shows a moderate pressure gradient over the state today as a low pressure system moves east.  The RAP shows that this gradient will persist for at least the next six hours.

The Critical Thicknesses plot shows that all critical thickness contours have migrated north ahead of yesterday’s Warm Air Advection.  This means that rain is more likely in the central and southern parts of the state, and snow is more likely in the north.

The Lake Effect Snow plot is not as impressive today, so it has been excluded from today’s forecast.  Convergence is limited over much of Ohio, including the normal trouble spots, like northeast of Cleveland.

Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows strong west-southwesterly flow over the state.

The 500 mb NAM chart shows some moderate Positive Vorticity Advection (PVA), particularly over the northern part of the state today.

The 700 mb NAM chart shows some rapidly-rising air, particularly ahead of the PVA, affecting the eastern part of the state.

The 850 mb NAM chart shows some slight Cold Air Advection (CAA) approaching from the west.  This CAA is moving just along the northern edge of the state.

The Precipitation chart shows some precipitation over most of the state today.  Most of this will be rain, though some of it may be snow near Lake Erie.

I expect that snow tonight will be regular snow- not lake effect, and thus will not accumulate in the same manner.  The PVA and rising air show convective type snow.  Here in Lodi, I don’t expect much accumulation at all, but farther north, they may see some accumulation.

Thank you for reading my forecast.

The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Local WX, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Radar Imagery, Satellite Imagery and tagged , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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