Yesterday was cool, breezy, and mostly cloudy.
This morning in Jersey, VA, has been overcast, cool, and still in the woods by my parents’ house.
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts a mostly cloudy day today, with a high temperature of 49 F. The winds will be calm to 5 mph from the south. This evening will be rainy after 1 am, with a low temperature of 37 F. Winds will be light and from the south.
None of the satellite imagery is available at this time.
The 12Z sounding from Sterling, VA, shows a relatively dry sounding, though there were damp layers near the surface and again at 400 mb. There was only 0.16 inches of precipitable water present in the column. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH). There was a large, deep thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 2.3 C/km.
The hodograph shows 14 kts of low-level shear (mostly directional changes) and 52 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly speed changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cool temperatures, clear skies, low to moderate dew points and light southerly winds. There are no major frontal boundaries present over the state so far this morning.
The surface pressure chart shows that we are under a 1034 mb high pressure system at this time. There are no strong pressure gradients over the state at this time. The RAP shows that the high pressure will begin to move out to sea, but no strong pressure gradients are expected over the next six hours.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows strong zonal flow over the state.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows no major vorticity advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows some rapidly-rising air over the state today. It is not very strong, but the eastern part of the state does have some rising air. However, this chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows some light Warm Air Advection (WAA), but the thermal gradient is not very strong. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Precipitation chart shows no significant precipitation over the state today. This chart was excluded from today’s post.
Today will be overcast and there will be rain later tonight. I’m watching the weather for early next week, as we will drive to Ohio in a few days.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC