Yesterday was mild, still and mostly sunny. There was a bit of haze in the evening, just enough to put a halo around the moon.
This morning on my commute to Socorro, the weather has been cool, mostly sunny, with thin high cirrus clouds, mild and still.
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts a mostly sunny day today, with a high temperature of 69 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph, becoming west in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 41 F. Winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph, becoming south. The NWS has issued a High Wind Watch (Friday) and a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning a cold front that will approach later this week.
The visible satellite is unavailable at this time.
The enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows some thicker clouds over the northern part of the state. These clouds are the southern extent of the large cloud mass to our north.
The water vapor satellite imagery shows deep moisture over most of the state. The exception to this is the dry slot that runs along the Rio Grande River Valley. Perhaps the Albuquerque sounding is not representative of the state at the surface this morning.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a relatively dry sounding, with only 0.19 inches of precipitable water present in the column. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH). There was a large, deep thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 2.2 C/km.
The hodograph shows 35 kts of low-level shear (mostly directional changes) and 63 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly speed changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures, clear skies, low to moderate dew points and light, variable winds. There are no major frontal boundaries present over the state so far this morning.
The surface pressure chart shows low pressure over east-central Colorado, creating a strong pressure gradient across the northeastern corner fo New Mexico. There is some slightly higher pressure over central New Mexico that is intensifying that gradient. However, the RAP shows that the gradient will decrease over the next six hours as the high pressure weakens.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows strong northwesterly to zonal flow over the state today.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows no major vorticity advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows no rapidly-rising air over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows some slight Warm Air Advection (WAA) in the northeastern corner of the state. This is pushing back the remnants of yesterday’s slight back door cold front.
The Precipitation chart shows no significant precipitation over the state today. This chart was excluded from today’s post.
Today will continue to be precipitation free, mild, and still. I think we are in store for a few big changes over the weekend, though I will be on the road, and will be attempting to outrun the approaching cold front.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC