Yesterday was mild, still and mostly sunny.
This morning in Socorro has been mostly sunny, with thin high cirrus clouds, mild and still.
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts a sunny day today, with a high temperature of 65 F. The winds will be from the south at 5 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 37 F. Winds will be from the south at 5 mph. The NWS has issued a Special Weather Statement and a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning a cold front that will approach later this week.
The visible satellite imagery shows a few light, high clouds scattered over the state today.
The enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows that a few thicker clouds in patches over the state this morning.
The water vapor satellite imagery shows deep moisture over the entire state. The water vapor imagery highlights the clouds that are hard to see on the other satellite images.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows that there is a moderate amount of moisture in the column, and that the moisture is well mixed throughout. The temperatures and dewpoints were warmer in the column this morning than they’ve been for several days. So, even though the dewpoint depressions were larger, there was more moisture available, with 0.45 inches of precipitable water present. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH). There was a moderate thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 3.2 C/km.
The hodograph shows 13 kts of low-level shear (mostly directional changes) and 76 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly speed changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures, clear skies, low to moderate dew points and light, variable winds. There are no major frontal boundaries present over the state so far this morning.
The surface pressure chart shows high pressure over Nebraska, though only the very northeastern corner of the state is under a strong pressure gradient. The RAP shows that the gradient will decrease over the next six hours.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows strong northwesterly to zonal flow over the state today.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows no major vorticity advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows no rapidly-rising air over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows some slight Cold Air Advection (CAA) in the form of a back door cold front approaching from the northeast. It is not very strong, and will be insignificant compared to the cold front that will form and affect the state Friday and Saturday.
The Precipitation chart shows no significant precipitation over the state today. This chart was excluded from today’s post.
Today will continue to be precipitation free, mild, and still.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC