Yesterday was cool, still and clear. When I launched the 00Z weather balloon, it went straight up until it was quite high.
This morning, Rio Rancho has been sunny, still and cold. There are some high clouds in the sky, especially to my east and southeast.
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts a mostly sunny day today, with a high temperature of 51 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5-15 mph, becoming west by this afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 28 F. Winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph, becoming northeast after midnight. The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning some strong winds over the Sangre De Cristo Mountains this afternoon. Of more concern to me is the strong cold front that will pass through on Wednesday. I have a 2-ish mile walk to my car on Wednesday night, so I expect it will be quite chilly!
The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.
The enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows no thick clouds over the state today. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The water vapor imagery shows some deeper moisture, though with the cold temperatures, it may appear artificially damp on this image.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a dry atmosphere today. There was 0.26 inches of precipitable water in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH) present this morning. There was a large, thick thermal inversions near the surface. The 0-3 km average lapse rate was 1.6 C/km.
The hodograph shows 21 kts of low-level shear (mostly directional changes) and 36 knots of deep-layer shear (mostly speed changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cold temperatures, clear skies, low dew points and light, variable winds. There is a dryline passing through the eastern third of the state so far this morning. The dewpoints jump from the low teens into the low thirties by Tucumcari.
The surface pressure chart shows some weakly high pressure over the northern border of the state, and a low pressure system over the Great Plains. This is generating a moderate pressure gradient over the northern tier of counties in New Mexico. The RAP shows that the low will continue to deepen, leaving the gradient in place for the next six hours.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows that there is some northwesterly flow over the state today as the split flow pattern moves to our east.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows no major vorticity advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows no rapidly-rising air over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows no major thermal advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Precipitation chart shows little chance of precipitation over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
Today will remain sunny, calm and cool. I am not expecting precipitation in the next 24 hours, statewide, though some fog is possible.
The cold front coming on Wednesday is not messing around. It is going to be frigid. However, it appears that today will be cool, calm and sunny.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC