Yesterday was cold, mostly sunny and breezy in Socorro. I saw that some snow was falling in Albuquerque, but we saw none in Socorro.
This morning, Socorro was cold, mostly clear and still.
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts a sunny day today, with a high temperature of 46 F. The winds will be from the west at 5 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 23 F. Winds will be from the north at 5 mph.
The visible satellite imagery shows only a few light clouds over the northwestern corner of the state today. In fact, most of these clouds might be snowcover, and not clouds at all.
The enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows no thick clouds over the state today. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The water vapor imagery shows that there is not much moisture over the state today. Yesterday’s trough is no longer shown over the state in this image.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows moisture dropping off quickly above 700 mb. However, with the temperatures so low, there was not much moisture present, even in the more “humid” boundary layer. There was 0.12 inches of precipitable water in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH) present this morning. There were several small thermal inversions near the surface. The 0-3 km average lapse rate was 4.6 C/km.
The hodograph is missing from today’s data. There are shear values, but there is a lot of missing values, so I am not going to report it today.
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cool temperatures, clear skies, low dew points and light, variable winds. There are no major frontal boundaries present over the state so far this morning.
The surface pressure map shows that there is a moderate pressure gradient over the northern part of the state, though the wind speeds do not reflect this gradient. High pressure is filling in the state from the northwest. The RAP shows that the pressure gradient will decrease in the next six hours.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows that the trough has moved east and weakened, leaving us with light zonal flow over the state by this afternoon.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows no strong vorticity advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows no rapidly-rising air over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Precipitation chart shows no precipitation over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
Today will continue to be sunny and cold. I am looking carefully at Friday, as the combination of moisture and a cold front may bring snow to the area.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC
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