New Mexico Weather: 11/26/16

Yesterday was cool, mostly sunny and still in Socorro.

This morning, Socorro is cool, overcast and still.

The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts a mostly cloudy day today, with some isolated sprinkles and a high temperature of 56 F.  The winds will be from the northeast at 5-15 mph, becoming south by this afternoon.  This evening will be cloudy, with a 20% chance of rain and a low temperature of 41 F.  Winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph.  The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook and a Special Weather Statement concerning increasing winds and mountain snowfall this evening.

All satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a dry atmosphere, though there is more moisture near the surface than aloft.  Even so,  there was only 0.20 inches of precipitable water in the column this morning.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH) present this morning.  There was a small thermal inversion near the surface.  The 0-3 km average lapse rate was 2.0 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 12 kts of low-level shear and 25 kts of deep-layer shear.  Low-level shear is due largely to directional changes and deep-layer shear is due largely to speed changes.

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cool  temperatures, clear skies, moderate dew points and only light winds.  In the southern part of the state, there is heavier cloud cover today, but the Doppler radar is not showing any falling precipitation.

The surface pressure map shows that there is a 1032 mb high pressure system over most of  New Mexico.  There are no strong pressure gradients over the state at this time, and the RAP shows that none are expected to develop over the next six hours.

Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows zonal flow with a slight southwestern tilt, and the speed increasing through today.  A new, deep trough is pushing east, and will be of much concern early next week.

The 500 mb NAM chart shows no strong vorticity advection over the state today.  This char has been excluded from today’s post.

The 700 mb NAM chart shows a large pocket of rising air over Arizona and the New Mexico Bootheel today.  This is what we have to look forward to over the next few days.

The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The Precipitation chart shows that no precipitation is expected over the state today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

Today will be the first day of the changes that are coming to New Mexico.  There may be some light rain, in spite of the NAM’s prediction.

Thank you for reading my forecast.

The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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