New Mexico Weather: 11/25/16

Forgot to hit publish again…

Yesterday was cool, mostly sunny and breezy from Rio Rancho to Socorro.

This morning in Rio Rancho has been cool, mostly sunny and slightly breezy.

The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts a mostly sunny day today, with a high temperature of 56 F.  The winds will be from the northeast at 5 mph, becoming southeast by this afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 32 F.  Winds will be from the southwest at 5 mph.  ,m

The visible satellite imagery shows that most of the state is cloud-free, except for some light clouds in the south.

The enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows no thick clouds over the state today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The water vapor imagery shows dry air working its way southeast through the state.  Currently, the boundary passes just south of the Albuquerque Metro area.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a dry atmosphere, though there is near saturation conditions at a thin layer around 425 mb.  Even so,  there was only 0.12 inches of precipitable water in the column this morning.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH) present this morning.  There was no thermal inversion near the surface.  The 0-3 km average lapse rate was 4.3 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 14 kts of low-level shear and 51 kts of deep-layer shear.  Low-level shear is due largely to directional changes and deep-layer shear is due largely to speed changes.

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cool  temperatures, clear skies, extremely low dew points and only light winds.

The surface pressure map shows that there is a 1032 mb high pressure pocket over the Colorado and New Mexico border.  There are no strong pressure gradients over the state at this time, and the RAP shows that none are expected to develop over the next six hours.

Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows moderate zonal flow as we are along the bottom stream of a split-flow pattern.

The 500 mb NAM chart shows no strong vorticity advection over the state today.  This char has been excluded from today’s post.

The 700 mb NAM chart shows no rapidly-rising air over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The Precipitation chart shows that no precipitation is expected over the state today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

Today will remain cool, breezy and will have a few clouds at higher levels.  We are in for some changes next week, including the “s” word.  No, the “s” word you can say as a kid and not get in trouble.

Thank you for reading my forecast.

The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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