Yesterday was cool, mostly sunny and a little breezy in Socorro.
This morning in Rio Rancho has been cool, mostly cloudy and quite breezy. There are mid and high level clouds over most of the sky. My weather station is not registering, so I will need to replace the batteries.
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts a mostly sunny day today, with a high temperature of 54 F. The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 27 F. Winds will be from the northwest at 5 mph.
The visible satellite imagery shows that most of the state has some cloud cover this morning.
The enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows that some of the clouds over the eastern third of the state are thick. At least some of this is blowing dust, but there is still some cloud cover.
The water vapor imagery shows moisture in the 700 mb to 400 mb band, bunched up along a cold front.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a relatively damp boundary layer, but otherwise the atmosphere is quite dry. There was 0.16 inches of precipitable water in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH) present this morning. There was a weak but deep thermal inversion near the surface. The 0-3 km average lapse rate was 3.6 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 29 kts of low-level shear and 64 kts of deep-layer shear. Low-level shear is due largely to directional changes and deep-layer shear is due largely to speed changes.
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cool temperatures, clear skies, moderate dew points and breezy conditions. There is a cold front and a dryline that are colinear through the eastern third of the state, as they show a 10 degree dewpoint change, a slight windshift, and a temperature drop.
The surface pressure map shows that there is a 1032 mb high pressure pocket over the Utah. This high pressure system has created a moderate pressure gradient over the state this morning, leading to our windy conditions. The RAP shows that this wind will weaken slightly over the next six hours as the high pressure remains intense and moves east.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows slight southwesterly flow as we are along the bottom stream of a split-flow pattern.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows no strong vorticity advection over the state today. This char has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows no rapidly-rising air over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows some weak Cold Air Advection (CAA) over the northeastern corner of the state.
The Precipitation chart shows that no precipitation is expected over the state today. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
Today will remain cool, breezy and will have a few clouds at higher levels. I do expect today to remain precipitation free.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC