Yesterday was cool, mostly sunny and breezy here in Socorro.
This morning has been cool, sunny and still.
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts a sunny day today, with a high temperature of 61 F. The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph. This evening will be clear, with a low temperature of 34 F. Winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming northwest after midnight.
The visible satellite imagery and the enhanced infrared satellite imagery show no clouds over the state today. These images have been excluded from today’s post.
The water vapor imagery shows a dry atmosphere over New Mexico this morning.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a relatively damp boundary layer, but otherwise the atmosphere is quite dry. There was 0.22 inches of precipitable water in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH) present this morning. There was a weak but deep thermal inversion near the surface. The 0-3 km average lapse rate was 2.3 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 18 kts of low-level shear and 52 kts of deep-layer shear. Low-level shear is due largely to directional changes and deep-layer shear is due largely to speed changes.
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cool temperatures, clear skies, moderate dew points and still winds.
The surface pressure map shows that there is a 1026 mb high pressure pocket over the Colorado border. There are no strong pressure gradients over the state today, and the RAP shows that none are expected to develop in the next six hours.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows moderate zonal flow over the state today.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows a swath of Negative Vorticity Advection (NVA) cutting across the state as the trough continues east. The NVA will help maintain clear the skies by this afternoon.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows no rapidly-rising air over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The Precipitation chart shows that no precipitation is expected over the state today. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
Today will remain cool, clear, still and precipitation free. I expect the surface dewpoints to drop over the next few hours, as some of the moisture mixes throughout the column.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC