Yesterday was cold, still and sunny. There was a thermal inversion last night, as the wood smoke lingered just above chimney level. Most places had their first freeze last night.
This morning has been cool, slightly breezy and sunny. The backyard weather station says the temperature is 50.4 F, the relative humidity is 28%, the relative pressure is 30.53 in Hg and rising, and the winds are 1.6 mph from the southwest.
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts a sunny day today, with a high temperature of 57 F. The winds will be from the east at 5 mph, becoming south by the afternoon. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 33 F. Winds will be from the southeast at 5 mph, becoming northeast tonight.
The visible satellite imagery and the enhanced infrared satellite imagery show that there were no clouds over the state today. These images have been excluded from today’s post.
The water vapor imagery shows uniform moisture over the state this morning.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque has dried out considerably. There was only 0.22 inches of precipitable water in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH) present this morning. There a large, deep thermal inversion near the surface. The 0-3 km average lapse rate was 1.0 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 18 kts of low-level shear and 35 kts of deep-layer shear. Shear at low-levels was due to directional changes and the deep-layer shear was due mostly to speed changes.
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cold temperatures, clear skies, incredibly low dewpoints and light winds. There are no major boundaries over the state thus far this morning.
The surface pressure map shows that high pressure is dominant over the state today. There are several pockets of 1034 mb high pressure, but no strong pressure gradient. The RAP shows that this gradient is not expected to increase over the next six hours, though the pressure will decrease with diurnal heating.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows slight southwesterly flow as we now exit a low amplitude ridge and prepare for the next trough.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows no strong vorticity advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows no rapidly-rising air over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows no significant thermal advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Precipitation chart shows that precipitation is unlikely. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
Overall, today will continue to be windy and clear, remaining cold tonight. Overall, it is much more seasonal weather than we’ve had so far this autumn.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC