New Mexico Weather: 11/15/16

HAPPY BIRTHDAY, JOEY!!!

Yesterday was mostly sunny and clear.  The temperature remained mild, and the winds light.

This morning has been cool, still and clear.  There are no clouds in the sky, and it looks like a high pressure, winter day.  The backyard weather station needs a battery change, and I’ll hopefully do that today.

The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts a sunny day today, with a high temperature of 69 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 5 mph, becoming southwest by the afternoon.  This evening will be clear, with a low temperature of 41 F.  Winds will be from the southwest at 5 mph, becoming calm after midnight.

The visible satellite imagery and the enhanced infrared satellite imagery show no clouds over the state this morning.  These images have been excluded from today’s post.

The water vapor imagery shows that there is little moisture over the state today.  This will be the trend for the next few days.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque was quite dry.  There was only 0.34 inches of precipitable water in the column this morning.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH) present this morning.  There was a large, deep thermal inversion near the surface.  The 0-3 km average lapse rate was 2.4 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 27 kts of low-level shear and 17 kts of deep-layer shear. Shear at all levels was a mix of speed and directional changes.

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures, low humidity (as shown by low dewpoints), light winds, and clear across the state so far this morning.  There are no major boundaries over the state.

The surface pressure map shows that high pressure has settled over the Four Corners region this morning.  There are no strong pressure gradients across the state, so far today.  The RAP shows that the pressure will drop, statewide, due to diurnal heating,b  but no strong pressure gradients are expected to develop over the next six hours.

Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows zonal flow, with stronger zonal flow in the northern part of the state.

The 500 mb NAM chart shows no strong vorticity advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The 700 mb NAM chart shows no rapidly rising air over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The 850 mb NAM chart shows no significant thermal advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Precipitation chart shows that there is little chance of precipitation today, statewide.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

Overall, today will be a mild, still, and sunny day today.  However, changes are on their way, as I highlighted in last night’s long term forecast.  Enjoy the day while you can!

Thank you for reading my forecast.

The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC

Advertisements

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Local WX, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Radar Imagery, Satellite Imagery, Severe Weather and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s