Long Range Forecasting: 11/14/16-11/21/16

It is time to look ahead at the long range forecast, as told by the GFS model.  This time period will usher in some major weather changes, so brace yourselves.

The 300 mb GFS charts show that a trough will begin to affect the state by Thursday.  This trough will dig through New Mexico, bringing with it cold air.  Lows will drop from the 40s to the 20s in just a day.  Sorry for the bad news.

The 500 mb GFS charts show strong Positive Vorticity Advection (PVA) moving through just ahead of the trough and associated cold front.  This strong vorticity will leave the area as the trough moves north and east.

The 700 mb GFS charts show some rapidly-rising air ahead of the trough by Thursday.  This rapidly-rising air will quickly decrease as the trough passes, leaving cold, dry air in its wake.

The 850 mb GFS charts show strong Cold Air Advection (CAA) moving in behind the cold front.  The CAA is strongest Friday morning, but the cold air will linger for several days.

The Precipitation charts show that the trough will bring in dry air, and there is virtually no chance of precipitation over the next seven days.  These charts have been excluded from today’s post.

Thank you for reading my post.

GFS Model Data is from Unisys Weather


About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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