New Mexico Weather: 11/9/16

Yesterday was mostly sunny and clear.  The temperature remained mild, and the winds light.

This morning has been cool, still and clear.

The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts a sunny day today, with a high temperature of 61 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, becoming east by the afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 40 F.  Winds will be from the east at 5 mph, becoming northwest after midnight.

The visible satellite imagery shows some light cloud cover over the southeastern corner of the state this morning.

The enhanced infrared satellite imagery show no clouds over the state this morning.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The water vapor imagery shows that there is still some moisture in the 700 mb to 400 mb band, but that the overall trend is drying out.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows that the atmosphere continued to dry out.  There was 0.36 inches of precipitable water in the column this morning.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH) present this morning.  There was no significant thermal inversion near the surface.  The 0-3 km average lapse rate was 4.3 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 3 kts of low-level shear and 24 kts of deep-layer shear.  Most of the shear at all levels was due to directional changes.

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cool temperatures, light winds, and clear skies over much of the state today.  The surface dewpoints were lower, and thus the humidity was lower, statewide.  There are no major frontal boundaries over the state today.

The surface pressure map shows that high pressure has developed over the Great Plains, and creeping into eastern New Mexico this morning.  There is no strong pressure gradient over the state today, and none is expected to develop in the next six hours, according to the RAP.

Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows strong easterly flow as the jetstream winds increase around the weakening low.  The winds meander in an extremely deformed pattern and a closed, upper-level low.

The 500 mb NAM chart shows some strong vorticity circling north of the upper-level low pressure system.  There will be some Positive Vorticity Advection (PVA) in central New Mexico by 0Z.

The 700 mb NAM chart shows no rapidly rising air over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The 850 mb NAM chart shows the beginning of some Cold Air Advection (CAA) pushes in from the northeast.  It will have slowed down by this evening, so I have excluded this image.

The Precipitation chart shows that there is little chance of precipitation today, statewide.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

Overall, today will be a cool, mostly clear day today.

Thank you for reading my forecast.

The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC


About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Local WX, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Radar Imagery, Satellite Imagery, Severe Weather and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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