Yesterday cleared up. It remained mild, and a little breezy around 0Z. When I went to launch the weather balloon in the afternoon, there was only some stratocumulus, covering maybe 1/8 of the sky, and I moved to the south side of the balloon shelter to block the breeze.
This morning has been cool, still and partly cloudy. Most of the clouds are high cirrus clouds.
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts a sunny day today, with a high temperature of 67 F. The winds will be from the north wind at 5-10 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 44 F. Winds will be from the north at 5 mph.
The visible satellite imagery shows that there is still cloud cover over the state, but not nearly as widespread as the it has been the last few days.
The enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows that most of the clouds are not very thick so far this morning.
The water vapor imagery shows that there is quite a bit of moisture in the 700 mb to 400 mb band.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a much drier atmosphere than we’ve seen in several days. There was 0.39 inches of precipitable water in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -no Convective Inhibition (CINH) present this morning. There was no significant thermal inversion near the surface. The 0-3 km average lapse rate was 4.1 C/km.
There was 30 kts of deep-layer shear and 30 kts of low-level shear. Shear at all levels was due to a mix of speed and directional changes.
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cool temperatures, light winds, and clear skies over much of the state today. The humidity is high, statewide, as noted by the low surface dewpoint depressions.
The surface pressure map shows that high pressure is over northern Arizona. There are no major pressure systems or gradients over New Mexico today, and the RAP shows that none are expected to develop over the next six hours.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows some northerly flow as we exit a deep, but weak trough. The winds are circling around an upper-level low that is moving through the Great Plains. The winds in the jetstream are not strong, and the low is weakening.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows no strong vorticity advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows no rapidly rising air over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows the beginning of some weak Cold Air Advection (CAA) that will move in from the northeast starting sometime in the overnight hours. You can see it beginning by 0Z, but it is more prominent in tomorrow’s outlook.
The Precipitation chart shows that there is little chance of precipitation today, statewide. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
Overall, today will be a cool, mostly clear day today, with the potential for some clouds in the evening. I expect no precipitation today, statewide.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC