New Mexico Weather: 10/30/16

Yesterday remained mild and still.  Skies cleared up, and there were only a few clouds at sunset.

This morning has been mild, partly cloudy and still.  The backyard weather station says the temperature is 67.1 F, the relative humidity is 34%, the relative pressure is 30.39 in Hg and rising, and the winds are 4.5 mph from the southeast.

The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts a sunny day today, with a high temperature of 78 F.  The winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph, becoming south by the afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy and a low temperature of 50 F.  Winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.

The visible satellite imagery and the enhanced infrared satellite imagery show no thick clouds over the state today.  These images have been excluded from today’s post.

The water vapor imagery shows some moisture over the northwestern corner of the state.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows that the moisture is contained to the boundary layer, and that there is some strong drying aloft.  There was 0.47 inches of precipitable water in the column this morning.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH) present this morning.  There were two strong thermal inversions , and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 4.7 C/km.

The deep-layer shear was 27 kts, and the low-level shear was 5 kts.  Deep-layer shear was due to speed changes and the low-level shear was due largely to directional changes.

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show warm temperatures, light winds, and clear  skies so far today.  There is a weak dryline running through the eastern quarter of the state.

The surface pressure map shows a slight high pressure system over the NM/CO border, once again.

The RAP shows that this high pressure system and the associated pressure gradient will diminish over the next six hours.  However, a low pressure system will work its way into eastern New Mexico, causing an increase in wind speeds near the TX border.

Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows southwesterly flow as we exit the west side of a broad ridge.

The 500 mb NAM chart shows no strong vorticity advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The 700 mb NAM chart shows some rapidly-rising air over the northwest and over the Bootheel region.

The 850 mb NAM chart shows that a back door cold front will attempt to push into New Mexico, only to be thwarted at all but the very northeastern corner of the state.  Its advancement southwest will be halted by 0Z.

The Precipitation chart shows very little chance of precipitation this afternoon.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

Overall, I am expecting a pleasant day today.  I am about to go for a run, and then a bike ride, and then perhaps work in my garden.  I am expecting good weather today, and a slow day at the Albuquerque NWS Office.

Thank you for reading my forecast.

The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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