New Mexico Weather: 10/29/16

Yesterday remained mild and still.  Skies ranged from partly cloudy to overcast all day, but no precipitation fell.

This morning has been mild, partly cloudy and still.  The backyard weather station says the temperature is 83.2 F, the relative humidity is 25%, the relative pressure is 30.30 in Hg and steady, and the winds are 0.7 mph from the east.

The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts a sunny day today, with a high temperature of 80 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph.  This evening will be mostly clear and a low temperature of 52 F.  Winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.

The visible satellite imagery shows a few light clouds in a mountain-wave pattern over the northwest.  It is not showing all of our clouds over Rio Rancho, surprisingly.

The enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows that all of the clouds are thin, with low, warm tops.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The water vapor imagery shows that the moisture has decreased over the state today.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows that there is some moisture available, with moisture peaks at 600 mb and then again at 500 mb.  There was 0.55 inches of precipitable water in the column this morning.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH) present this morning.  There was a moderate thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 5.1 C/km.

The deep-layer shear was 39 kts, and the low-level shear was 23 kts.  Deep-layer shear was due to speed changes and the low-level shear was due largely to directional changes.

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show warm temperatures, light winds, and clear  skies so far today.  The surface dewpoints are low.  There are no major boundaries across the state today.

The surface pressure map shows a slight high pressure system over the NM/CO border, once again.  There is a thermal low over the Oklahoma Panhandle and into the Great Plains, leaving a light pressure gradient across the northern part of the state.  The RAP shows that this high pressure system and the associated pressure gradient will diminish over the next six hours.  The low pressure will become more widespread by evening.

Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows zonal flow over the state (and most states) today.  However, there is an approaching trough that will bring us some potential for rain by Wednesday.

The 500 mb NAM chart shows no strong vorticity advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The 700 mb NAM chart shows very little rapidly-rising air over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The 850 mb NAM chart shows no significant thermal advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Precipitation chart shows very little chance of precipitation this afternoon.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The weather will have some clouds, though precipitation is highly unlikely.

Thank you for reading my forecast.

The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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