Storm Prediction Center Update: 10/26/16

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Outlook does not show much severe weather action over the next week.

Day 1: Marginal Risk


The SPC has issued a Marginal Risk for eastern Oklahoma.  This region is ahead of a shortwave trough that continues to push northeast, which has lead to increased deep-layer shear and mid-level lapse rates.  This trough is passing into an area of modest Gulf moisture.  Overnight convection has also left several weak outflow boundaries that may be the focus of a few strong to severe storms today.  The primary threat will be large hail.  The SPC predicts that the threat of tornadoes is less than 2%, nationwide.


Day 2: No Risk Areas At This Time

A low pressure system will move out of the Ohio River Valley, and a few storms may form along the warm front.  However, limited moisture and instability will keep storms below severe limits.


Day 3:  No Risk Areas At This Time

Even though a strong shortwave trough is expected to move through the west, limited moisture will keep severe storm potential low.  Showers and thunderstorms are expected to remain below severe limits.


Day 4-8 Potential Too Low

After Day 3, a large scale omega block will be in place, limiting severe storm potential significantly.  By Day 6, the models start to diverge slightly, but severe weather is not expected throughout this time period.

Thank you for reading this post.

All data and images are from the Storm Prediction Center Website.


About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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