Long Range Forecasting: 10/23/16-10/30/16

It is time to look ahead at the long range forecast, as told by the GFS model.

The 300 mb GFS charts show that we will start out this week in a split-flow pattern, transitioning to light, zonal flow.  We will be in the center of another ridge this week, leaving us with higher than average temperatures and light, zonal winds aloft.

The 500 mb GFS charts show that there is not a speck of strong Positive Vorticity Advection (PVA) expected over the next week.  There isn’t even strong vorticity over the state, and thus it can’t move anywhere.  These charts have been excluded from today’s post.

The 700 mb GFS charts show some rapidly-rising air on Monday evening.  This rapidly-rising air will show up as cloud cover and falling precipitation on Monday evening.

The 850 mb GFS charts show that above seasonal temperatures will occur for most of the time period, though a back door cold front will creep into the state from the northeast on Friday evening.  It will not get very far into the state, but the northeastern corner will see some colder temperatures.

The Precipitation charts show that this week will be mostly dry.  There is a chance of rain on Monday evening, between the two time slices of the GFS.  The highest chances of precipitation are in the northwestern part of the state.

Thank you for reading my post.

GFS Model Data is from Unisys Weather


About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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