Yesterday was a pleasant day, with sunny skies and warm temperatures all day. The evening was not as cold as it had been the previous two nights.
It has been mild, still and clear so far this morning in Socorro.
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts a sunny day today, with a high temperature of 81 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 5 mph. This evening will be mostly clear and a low temperature of 50 F. Winds will be from the south at 5 mph, shifting northwest by midnight.
The visible satellite imagery and the enhanced infrared satellite imagery show few clouds over the state today. These images have been excluded from today’s post.
The water vapor imagery shows more dry air over the state again today. This dry air will define our weather for a few days yet.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows that the atmosphere was still very dry. There were large dewpoint depressions and only 0.38 inches of precipitable water present in the column. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH) present this morning. There was small, but thick thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 4.5 C/km.
The deep-layer shear was 37 kts, and the low-level shear was 12 kts. Shear at all levels was a mix of speed and directional changes.
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) cooler temperatures again today. There is also low surface humidity, light winds, and clear skies over most of the state today. There are no major boundaries over the state this morning.
The surface pressure map shows a weak high pressure system over the Colorado border. This high pressure system has generated only a slight pressure gradient, which has not been enough to drastically raise the wind speeds. The RAP shows that this high pressure system and the associated pressure gradient will decrease over the next six hours.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows light zonal flow. We are in the ridge between two troughs, and will remain there for several days, hence the warmer temperatures.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows no strong vorticity advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows very little rapidly-rising air over the state today. There is a small pocket of rising air west of Albuquerque, though with the limited moisture, I do not expect many clouds.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows no significant thermal advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Precipitation chart shows very little chance of precipitation this afternoon. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The weather will warm back up after our cold front Thursday and Friday. This ridge will persist for several days, keeping the temperatures up, the moisture down, and the skies clear.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC