Storm Prediction Center Update: 10/12/16

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Outlook does not show much severe weather action over the next week.

Day 1: Marginal Risk

An existing Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) may persist into the late evening behind some Warm Air Advection (WAA).  Ample moisture and some shear will keep this storm alive until instability decreases in the late evening and early morning hours.

The SPC says there is less than a 2% chance of tornadoes nationwide for the remainder of the evening.

 

Day 2: No Risk Areas At This Time

Non-severe storm development is possible ahead of a trough that will extend through the Great Plains.  While the airmass ahead of the trough will be moist, the instability will remain low, limiting the severe weather potential.

 

Day 3:  No Risk Areas At This Time

Between high pressure in the eastern part of the country and the ridging in the Great Plains, no severe weather is expected on Day 3.

 

Day 4-5 Potential Too Low

A few locally severe storms are possible ahead of a weak cold front and trough that will move through the Great Plains on Saturday.  However, severe weather will be limited in scope and does not warrant a 15% threat at this time.

 

Day 6-8:  Predictability Too Low

There are quite a few variables surrounding the storm potential on these days.  Should the cold front become oriented east to west, increased moisture and instability may warrant a severe threat.  However, the models are not in agreement over this scenario.

 

Thank you for reading this post.

All data and images are from the Storm Prediction Center Website.

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Models, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, SPC 1-7 day and tagged , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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