Long Range Forecasting: 10/9/16-10/16/16

It is time to look ahead at the long range forecast, as told by the GFS model.

The 300 mb GFS charts show that a small shortwave trough will pass through the state on Thursday.  This trough will generate some PVA, some lift, and will also likely be timed to a small backdoor cold front, giving us our greatest chance of rain on Thursday evening.

The 500 mb GFS charts show that there will be some weak Positive Vorticity Advection (PVA) on Thursday evening.  This PVA is not very strong, but is more obvious on the image loop, rather than any particular still frame.

The 700 mb GFS charts show some rapidly-rising air on Wednesday evening along both sides of the central mountain chain.

The 850 mb GFS charts show moderate Cold Air Advection (CAA) as a back door cold front on Thursday evening.  This CAA will move in from the northeast, washing out near the Albuquerque Metro area.

The Precipitation charts show that this week will be mostly dry.  There is some chance of precipitation on Thursday, particularly in the eastern part of the state.

Thank you for reading my post.

GFS Model Data is from Unisys Weather


About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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