Yesterday was a stormy, rainy mess here in New Mexico. I wanted to go for a run in the morning, but there was a nearby thunderstorm. Then, it rained off and on most of the day. In the evening, I went to a friend’s house and it rained there as well.
In Rio Rancho this morning, the weather has been cool, still and mostly cloudy. The clouds have been slowly mixing out. The backyard weather station says the temperature is 64.9 F, the relative humidity is 59%, the relative pressure is 30.39 in Hg and steady, and the winds are 0.7 mph from the southwest.
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts a mostly cloudy day today, with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 70 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph, becoming southwest by the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 49 F. Winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph, becoming light and variable after midnight. The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning the potential for strong to severe storms. The primary threat will be large hail (up to 1″ in diameter) west of the central mountain chain and east of I-40. Skywarn spotters are encouraged to report severe weather to the NWS.
Along those lines, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Marginal Risk for severe weather over the central part of the state today. The primary threats will be large hail and gusty winds, and the chances of tornadoes are less than 2%.
The visible satellite shows cloud cover over most of the state so far this afternoon. It is mixing out, however.
The enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows only clouds with warm, low tops. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The water vapor imagery shows that there is ample, uniform moisture over the state today.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a humid sounding with ample moisture under 500 mb. There was 0.78 inches of precipitable water present in the column. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -201 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH) present this morning. There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 5.6 C/km.
The deep-layer shear was 24 kts, and the low-level shear was 13 kts. Shear at all levels was due largely to speed changes.
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show light winds, cool temperatures, moderate dewpoints, and cloudy skies over most of the state this morning. Based on the wind few degree rise in dewpoints, I would say that there is a weak dryline over the eastern third of the state.
The surface pressure map shows that there are no strong pressure gradients over the state today. We are under high pressure at this time, though it will diminish with diurnal heating in areas where the sun can poke through the clouds. The RAP shows no strong pressure gradients developing over the next six hours.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows a split flow pattern merging to our east, leaving us with zonal winds over the state today.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows no significant vorticity advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows some rapidly rising air just west of the Albuquerque Metro area by 0Z.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows no significant thermal advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Precipitation chart shows that rain is possible over most of the state by this afternoon.
I expect today to remain cloudy and overcast, with light rain off and on throughout the Albuquerque metro area.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC