New Mexico Weather: 10/5/16

Yesterday was a rain-free day here in Rio Rancho and Socorro.  The day remained pleasant.  The evening was chilly, and I was certainly glad that I had brought my flannel shirt.

I also did a severe thunderstorms prediction yesterday- the tornado threat did not materialize, though there were a number of hail and wind reports across the central Great Plains.

In Socorro this morning, the weather has been still, quite chilly and clear.

The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts a sunny day today, with a high temperature of 80 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, becoming southerly at 10-15 mph by the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 50 F.  Winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph, shifting to the north after midnight.  The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook for freezing temperatures in northern part of the state, including the Estancia Valley, Chama River Valley and far northeast highlands.

The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.

The enhanced infrared satellite imagery show no thick clouds over the state this morning.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The water vapor imagery shows that the air above New Mexico is uniformly dry.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a much drier sounding than we’ve seen in several days.  There was 0.27 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH) present this morning.  There was a strong thermal inversion, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 4.7 C/km.

The deep-layer shear was 63 kts, and the low-level shear was 14 kts.  Shear at all but the lowest levels was due to speed changes.

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show light winds, cool temperatures, low dewpoints, and clear skies over the state this morning.  There are no major frontal boundaries over the state so far this morning.

The surface pressure map shows no strong pressure gradients over the state so far this morning.  The RAP shows that none are expected to develop over the next six hours.  The NWS has the wind speeds increasing later this afternoon, so perhaps this changes outside of the next six hours.

Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows moderate zonal flow today.  An elongated jetstreak will pass through the northern part of the state through this afternoon.

The 500 mb NAM chart shows no significant vorticity advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The 700 mb NAM chart shows no rapidly rising air over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Precipitation chart shows very little rain is possible today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

Cool and clear weather will persist for several days as the trough passes to our north.  Most of today’s post was a copy from yesterday, and tomorrow’s will be a similar copy of today’s.  We will start to have chances of precipitation again on Friday, so stay tuned.

Thank you for reading my forecast.

The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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