Yesterday was a rain-free day here in Rio Rancho and Socorro. The day remained pleasant, but a bit windy.
In Rio Rancho this morning, the weather has been still, quite chilly and clear.
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts a sunny day today, with a high temperature of 75 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 10 mph, becoming southwest by the afternoon. This evening will be clear, with a low temperature of 41 F. Winds will be from the southwest wind at 5-10 mph, shifting to the north after midnight. The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook for freezing temperatures in northern part of the state, including Farmington.
The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.
The enhanced infrared satellite imagery show no thick clouds over the state this morning. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The water vapor imagery shows that the air above New Mexico is much drier today than it has been for the last few days.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a much drier sounding than we’ve seen in several days. There was 0.27 inches of precipitable water present in the column. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH) present this morning. There was no strong thermal inversion, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 5.6 C/km.
The deep-layer shear was 67 kts, and the low-level shear was 7 kts. Shear at all but the lowest levels was due to speed changes.
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show light winds, cool temperatures, low dewpoints, and clear skies over the state this morning. There are no major frontal boundaries over the state so far this morning.
The surface pressure map shows a moderate pressure gradient over the northern part of the state, but the winds are not very strong. The RAP shows that this pressure gradient will decrease over the next six hours.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows strong zonal flow today. An elongated jetstreak will pass through the northern part of the state through this afternoon.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows no significant vorticity advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows mostly sinking air over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Precipitation chart shows very little rain is possible today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The cold front has clearly passed through the state. I woke up this morning to 43.8 F on the thermometer, and brought a jacket with me to work. Autumn has arrived!
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC