New Mexico Weather: 9/20/16

Yesterday, there was no rain from Rio Rancho to Socorro.  It turned out to be a really warm day here in Socorro, though we did have some clouds by the afternoon.

In Rio Rancho this morning, the weather has been still, mild and clear.  The sky is mostly cloudy.

The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts a partly sunny day today, with a 10% chance of isolated storms, and a high temperature of 87 F.  The winds will be from the northeast at 5-10 mph, shifting to the souuthwest by this evening.  This evening will be cloudy, with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms and low temperature of 62 F and a southwest wind of 5-10 mph, becoming light and variable after midnight.  The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning the storms this afternoon.  The primary threats will be heavy rain and small hail.  Geographically, storm coverage will be heaviest in the southern part of the state.

The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.

The enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows that the western half of the state is under moderately thick cloud cover as tropical moisture from Paine makes its way into the desert southwest.

The water vapor imagery shows the rich, tropical moisture flowing into the southwest.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque a shows a dry boundary layer this morning.  There was only 0.37 inches of precipitable water present, and high dewpoint depressions below 450 mb.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -no Convective Inhibition (CINH).  There was a strong thermal inversion and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was only 4.3 C/km.

The deep-layer shear was 27 kts, and the low-level shear was 17 kts.  Low-level shear was due to directional changes and deep-layer shear was due to speed changes.

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show clear skies, light winds, cool temperatures and low dewpoints over the state this morning.  There is a dryline that runs through the eastern third of the state, but even the moist side of the dryline only has dewpoints in the 40s.

The surface pressure map shows no strong pressure systems or strong pressure gradients over the state today.  The RAP shows that nne are expected to develop over the next six hours.

Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows southwesterly flow  over the state today as a weak jetstreak passes north of the state.

The 500 mb NAM chart shows some weak Positive Vorticity Advection (PVA) into the central part of the state.  The gradient is strong, but the winds blow at less than a right angle to the gradient.

The 700 mb NAM chart shows some strong Upward Vertical Velocities (UVV) over the nonrth-central part of the state today.

The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal gradients over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Precipitation chart is not as impressive as I had imagined.  The NAM is calling for only a few spots of limited precipitation.

Overall, I think that there is some rain will fall in isolated to scattered locations.  With the rising air at 700 mb, and the PVA near the center of the state, I expect that convection will occur along the I-25 corridor, as well as due north of Albuquerque to the Colorado border.

Thank you for reading my forecast.

The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Local WX, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery and tagged , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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