New Mexico Weather: 9/19/16

Yesterday, there was no rain from Rio Rancho to Socorro.  It turned out to be a really warm day here in Socorro.

In Socorro this morning, the weather has been still, mild and clear.  There were a few high clouds.

The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts a  sunny day today, with a high temperature of 90 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph, shifting to the east by this evening.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 62 F and a southeast wind of 5-10 mph.

The visible satellite imagery and the enhanced infrared satellite imagery show no clouds over the state this morning.  These images have been excluded from today’s post.

The water vapor imagery shows a distinct border between moisture and dry air along the trough boundary.  Notice that there is dry air over most of New Mexico this morning, with some moisture in the southwestern corner.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque a shows a dry atmosphere this morning.  There was only 0.20 inches of precipitable water present, and high dewpoint depressions throughout the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -no Convective Inhibition (CINH).  There was a strong thermal inversion and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was only 3.3 C/km.

The deep-layer shear was 19 kts, and the low-level shear was 10 kts.  Shear was a mix of speed and directional changes at all levels.

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show clear skies, light winds, cool temperatures and low dewpoints over the state this morning.

The surface pressure map shows 1022 mb high pressure over the Colorado border, but no strong pressure gradients over New Mexico this morning.  The RAP shows that the pressure gradient will fade through the next six hours.

Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows a little zonal flow, but almost no flow at all.  This will change in a few days.

The 500 mb NAM chart shows no significant vorticity advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The 700 mb NAM chart shows some no strong Upward Vertical Velocities (UVV) over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal gradients over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Precipitation chart is unavailable at this time.

Overall, I somehow lost my actual prediction.  I expected a mostly sunny day in Socorro.

Thank you for reading my forecast.

The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Local WX, Possible Chase Opportunity, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery and tagged , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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