Long Range Forecasting: 9/18/16-9/25/16

It is time to look ahead at the long range forecast, as told by the GFS model.  (Oops, I hit “Publish” a little early!  It should be updated at this time.)

The 300 mb GFS charts show that we have zonal flow for several days, but then a deep and narrow trough around a closed, upper-level low, will push into the area by Friday evening.   This trough will affect us all of next weekend.

The 500 mb GFS charts show that there will be some vorticity entering the northwestern corner of the state associated with the upper-level low.

The 700 mb GFS charts show several days of rapidly-rising air, especially Friday and Saturday, as the upper-level low approaches.

The 850 mb GFS charts show moderate Cold Air Advection (CAA) just ahead of the low pressure system as it moves into the northeastern corner of the state.  Cooler air will start on Friday.

The Precipitation charts show that after a few dry days, the chances of precipitation will increase, yielding a coverage peak by Wednesday evening.

Thank you for reading my post.

GFS Model Data is from Unisys Weather


About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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