Yesterday, there were quite a few storms in central New Mexico. I was never in one, but seemed to be just behind several. I left Socorro at one point to Bernardo, and there was standing water on several of the roads. After I finished in Bernardo and returned to Socorro, the roads were wet in Socorro. That was the least of the problems, however, as large hail and one tornado were reported in the state yesterday, as shown by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) storm reports graphic.
In Socorro this morning, the weather has been still, clear and cool.
The SPC has issued a Marginal Risk for severe weather over the eastern plains of New Mexico. There is less than a 2% chance of tornadoes associated with this risk area.
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts a mostly sunny day today, with a high temperature of 80 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph, shifting to the southeast by this evening. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 53 F and a south wind of 5-10 mph, shifting to the northwest after midnight. The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook for strong to severe storms this evening, where large hail and strong wind gusts are the primary threat, but tornadoes cannot be ruled out at this time.
The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.
The enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows no thick clouds over the state this morning. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The water vapor imagery shows slightly less moisture than yesterday through most of the state ahead of the trough and upper-level, closed low.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque a some moisture aloft, particularly at the 550 mb level. There was 0.65 inches of precipitable water present in the column. There was 80 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -411 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH). There was a small thermal inversion and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.5 C/km.
The deep-layer shear was 35 kts, and the low-level shear was 14 kts. Deep-layer shear was due largely to speed changes and low-level shear was influenced strongly by directional changes. Deep-layer shear is marginally enough to support rotating storms, and low-level shear could support tornadogenesis.
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show clear skies over most of the state, except the southeastern corner. Dewpoints were low and winds were light, statewide. There southeastern corner has a little more moisture today, with higher dewpoints, and cloudier skies.
The surface pressure map shows no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state at this time. The RAP shows that none are expected to develop in the next six hours.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows strong zonal flow over the state today as a thin jetstreak associated with the broad trough passes through the southern part of the state.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows slight Positive Vorticity Advection (PVA) over the central parts of the state by 0Z. It is not very strong, but there is a gap of low vorticity ahead of an area of high vorticity.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows some positive Upward Vertical Velocities (UVV) associated with the PVA shown on the 500 mb NAM chart.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal gradients over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Precipitation chart shows only a few small patches of potential rain this afternoon.
Overall, I think that we will have a pleasant day here in Socorro. There are cumulus clouds building, but few show vertical development at this time.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC