It rained off and on most of the day yesterday in Socorro. The skies remained mostly cloudy.
This morning, the skies are overcast, the temperatures cool, the humidity high and there is rain off and on again as the remnants of Hurricane Newton affect the area.
The National Weather Service (NWS) office in Albuquerque forecasts a cloudy, gloomy day today, with a 70% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 80 F. This evening will be cloudy, with an 80% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 61 F. The NWS has issued a Flash Flood Watch and a Hazardous Weather Outlook through tomorrow morning concerning the heavy rainfall associated with the remnants of Hurricane Newton.
The visible satellite imagery shows that most of the state is under cloud cover today, with most places having nearly 100% sky coverage.
The infrared satellite imagery shows that a few of these clouds are thick, with cooler, high tops. Notice the highest tops are over southern Arizona, where the remnants of Hurricane Newton have come ashore.
The water vapor imagery shows that there is plenty of tropical moisture associated with this storm.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows the extent of the deep moisture that has drifted into our area from the remnants of Hurricane Newton. There were low dewpoint depressions throughout the entire column as well as 1.16 inches of precipitable water. There was 403 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -16 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was no thermal inversion and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.8 C/km.
The deep-layer shear was 43 kts and the low-level shear was 4 kts. Shear at all levels was due largely to speed changes.
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show overcast skies, cool temperatures and light winds. The Doppler Radar overlays shows some of the convection associated with the tropical system in the southern part of the state.
The surface pressure chart shows the tight low pressure system moving across Northern Mexico. There is no large pressure gradient across New Mexico so far this morning, and the RAP shows none developing in the next six hours. The tropical system will weaken considerably over the next six hours, reaching 1010 mb.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart shows that we are under the leading edge of a large trough, and that we can expect southwesterly flow aloft.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows some Positive Vorticity Advection (PVA) ahead of the bulk of the remnants of Hurricane Newton. This will push into southwestern New Mexico by 0Z.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows a pocket of rapidly-rising air and moderate positive Upward Vertical Velocities (UVV) in a pocket over the southwestern corner of the state, associated with the PVA we saw on the 500 mb chart.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows some weak Cold Air Advection (CAA) into the western part of the state as rain-cooled air is pushed ahead of the tropical system into New Mexico.
The Precipitation chart shows the heavy rainfall associated with the remnants of Hurricane Newton. Through tomorrow morning, heavy rainfall will be possible over most of the state.
Today is going to be a messy day. It’s one of those few days where I get to talk about tropical storms as they pertain to New Mexico. Stay alert and watch out for flash flooding and urban flooding as rainfall rates will vary wildly with this system. Every weather model will predict an average rainfall for an area; locally, much heavier rain is possible.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC