New Mexico Weather: 9/5/16

Yesterday was a hot, clear and sunny day in Silver City.  No rain fell,  and there were barely any clouds.

The weather in Silver City is clear and still so far this morning.  It is still dark outside, but at first light, I will go for a run.

The National Weather Service office in El Paso, TX, forecasts a mostly sunny day today, with a 10% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 84 F.  The wind will be from the east-southeast at 5-10 mph, shifting to the south-southwest by the afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 57 F.  The wind will be from the south-southwest at 5-9 mph, becoming calm after midnight.  The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning the isolated storms.  Heavy rainfall and localized flooding are possible with these storms.

The visible satellite imagery is unavailabe at this time.

The infrared satellite imagery shows that none of these clouds are thick. This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The water vapor imagery shows that there is still some moisture over the state today.  There is a thin band of deeper moisture, the western edge of which passes over Silver City.

The 12Z upper air sounding from El Paso, TX, shows a humid sounding again today, with 1.19 inches of precipitable water and high dewpoints throughout the column.  There was 557 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -331 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH) present this morning.  There was a slight thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.5 C/km.

The deep-layer shear was 14 kts and the low-level shear was 15 kts.  Shear at all levels was due to a mix of speed and directional changes.

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show clear skies, mild temperatures, high dewpoints and light winds. There are no major frontal boudnaries present over the state, though there is a dryline that runs through the eastern third of the state.

The surface pressure chart shows no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state today.  The RAP shows that a thermal low will develop over the Colorado Rockies over the next six hours.  There will be some tightening of the pressure gradient over the eastern part of New Mexico and wind speeds will increase slightly.

Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart shows that we are under the leading edge of a large trough, and that we can expect southwesterly flow aloft again today.

The 500 mb NAM chart shows no strong vorticity advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The 700 mb NAM chart shows a pocket of rapidly-rising air and moderate positive Upward Vertical Velocities (UVV) north and west of the Albuquerque Metro area.

The 850 mb NAM chart shows some weak Cold Air Advection (CAA) into the eastern part of the state as cooler air blows across the thermal gradient from cooler to warmer through Texas. While the winds cross the border at a right angle, the thermal gradient is not very strong, so CAA will remain weak.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Precipitation chart shows significantly less precipitation (quantity and coverage) than yesterday. In fact, there is only a few pockets where precipitation is expected at all today.

Overall, I expect a pleasant, precipitation-free day today in Silver City.  I think there may be an increased chance of rain this evening, based on the 700 mb chart, but overall, it looks like a dry day.  I did not get over to the Hatch Chile Festival yesterday, so I will do that today instead.  I think today will be a good day for the Hatch Chile Festival.

Thank you for reading my forecast.

The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC


About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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