Long Range Forecasting: 9/4/16-9/11/16

It is time to start this up again, as I have missed several weeks of posts and I feel so disconnected from what is happening in the weather-world.

The 300 mb GFS charts show that the trough entering New Mexico will persist for several days, finally exiting the state by Saturday. Actually, the trough will attenuate, but there is a split flow pattern that includes a jetstreak that will be over the state until Saturday, to be more specific. Either way, we will have strong southwesterly flow aloft this week, with zonal flow by next weekend.

The 300 mb NAM charts agree, at least out to 60 hours.

The 500 mb GFS charts show that vorticity advection will be weak, as there is very little vorticity to advect, even though the trough digs farther south at this level. By 0Z Thursday (Wednesday evening), there is a little bit of vorticity, but the 500 mb winds are not really strong enough to move it very far.

The 500 mb NAM charts agree, with virtually no vorticity out to 60 hours. These charts has been excluded from today’s post.

The 700 mb GFS charts show that the most positive Upward Vertical Velocities (UVV) appear by 0Z Wednesday (Tuesday evening) associated with the trough position. UVVs are stronger in the western part of the state.

The 700 mb NAM charts agree, though the area of high UVVs is focused near the Four Corners area by Tuesday evening.

The 850 mb GFS charts show no strong thermal advection over the next week. There is some Cold Air Advection (CAA) on most days as cooler air blows against a weak thermal gradient from Texas, but nothing stands out. Probably the most interesting day during this time period is 0Z Thursday, where there is a much sharper thermal gradient through the center of the state, as well as “confused” variable winds, which may lead to some additional convection.

The 850 mb NAM charts agree, with no strong thermal advection out to 60 hours. These charts have been excluded from today’s post.

The GFS Precipitation charts show that Tuesday evening shows the best chances of rain for most of the state, in terms of coverage and amount. Most of this next week will be dry, according to the GFS.

The NAM Precpitation charts better highlight the threat on Tuesday and Wednesday. In the NAM, you can see the precipitation start in the west, and can almost imagine the system moving through the state, dumping the heaviest rain in the southeastern corner of the state by Wednesday morning.

Thank you for reading my post.

NAM and GFS Model Data is from Unisys Weather


About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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