New Mexico Weather: 9/2/16

In Rio Rancho this morning, the weather was mild, still, and mostly sunny.  There has been no precipitation in the last 24 hours.

The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts a mostly sunny day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 83 F.  The wind will be from the east at 5-10 mph, shifting to the southwest in the afternoon.  By this evening, the  weather will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 60 F.  The wind will be from the south at 5-10 mph.  The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning the potential for flooding this evening as showers and thunderstorms produce heavy rainfall.  Skywarn Spotters are encouraged to report heavy rainfall amounts to the NWS.

The visible satellite imagery shows that there are some high clouds scattered about the state, but no strong convection.

9-2-16 vis

The enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows no thick clouds over the state today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The water vapor satellite imagery shows that there has been some moisture return into the central part of the state.

9-2-16 wv

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows another humid day in Albuquerque, with low dewpoint depressions and 1.01 inches of precipitable water through the column.  There was 101 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -90 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH).  There was no thermal inversion this morning, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.7 C/km.  No, I don’t know why there is a red line through the sounding, I was wondering the same thing myself.  The wind profile data is unavailable, so it may be related, or it may be coincidental.

9-2-16 12z abq

The hodograph is unavailable at this time.

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show clear skies and light winds over most of the state this morning.  The temperatures are mild but humid, based on the surface dewpoint depressions.  There are no major boundaries present over the state so far this morning.

9-2-16 surf

The surface pressure map shows no strong pressure gradients over the state this morning.  The RAP shows that none are expected to develop in the next six hours.

9-2-16 pres

Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows a strange situation.  We are between two troughs, but it is not quite a ridge; one trough is to our east, and another is much broader and approaching from the west.  We are left with southwestern flow across the northern part of the state, and almost no flow in the southern part.

9-2-16 300mb

The 500 mb NAM chart shows no strong vorticity advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The 700 mb NAM chart shows one pocket of positive Upward Vertical Velocities (UVV) just west of the Albuquerque Metro area.  These velocities are not very high, but there will be some convection.

9-2-16 700mb

The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Precipitation chart shows that much of the state could receive precipitation today.  Notice, however, the heavy precipitation associated with the remnants of Hurricane Hermine over the South by this evening.

9-2-16 precip

Overall, I expect that rain will be possible over most of the state through this evening.  Looking ahead, there will be a drying trend starting tomorrow.  Between the convection that is possible, according to the 700 mb NAM chart, and the humid morning sounding, I think there is a good chance that there will be a stronger chance of rain near and north of the I-40 corridor.

Thank you for reading my forecast.

The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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