There was no rain in Socorro yesterday.
This morning in Socorro, the weather was warm and humid, but not unpleasant. The winds have been still, and the skies are mostly sunny, with the clouds continuing to mix out this morning.
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts a partly sunny day today, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 84 F. Winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, shifting to the east by the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered storms and a low temperature of 60 F. The winds will be east at 5-10 mph, shifting to the west after midnight. The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning the storms that will form this evening. Storms will be moving slowly, and rainfall amounts are estimated in the 1 to 2 inch range. This will lead to localized flooding, especially on and east of the central mountain chain.
The visible satellite imagery shows that the skies have cleared in the western part of the state, but overcast skies still dominate the eastern half.
The infrared satellite imagery shows that none of the clouds are very thick, as all have low, warm tops.
The water vapor imagery shows that the dryline is still running through the center of the state, with the moisture bunched up east of the central mountain chain.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a humid morning, at least under 500 mb. The dewpoint depressions were low, and there was 0.84 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was 4 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -183 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH), and no strong thermal inversion near the surface. The 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.3 C/km.
The hodograph shows that the deep-layer shear was 28 kts and the low-level shear was 9 kts, though much of the data was missing from this morning’s launch.
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows mild temperatures, high humidity, light winds and cloudy skies in the east. There is a dryline that runs through the eastern part of the state, as shown in both the dewpoints and the water vapor imagery.
The surface pressure chart shows a 1024 mb high pressure system over the Colorado border. There are no strong pressure gradients over the state so far this morning, and the RAP shows none developing in the next six hours.
The 300 mb NAM chart shows that the trough has weakened, but there is still a weak jetstreak passing through the center of the state through this evening.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows no strong vorticity advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows no rapidly-rising air over the state today. There is some weakly-rising air, however. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 850 mb NAM chart is not showing strong thermal advection, but do notice the cold air intrusion in through the northeastern corner of the state.
The Precipitation chart shows that there is a chance of precipitation over most areas in the state, as well as a patch of heavy rain over the southeastern corner.
Overall, I think there will be some rain today. The air is humid, and there will be plenty of diurnal heating through this afternoon.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC