Yesterday, I did not experience much rain, though there was a few drops falling in Magdalena, and I think it rained while I was teaching class, though barely enough to wet the ground in Socorro. In Albuquerque, there was standing water along some of the roads, so perhaps they had some heavy rain earlier in the day.
In Rio Rancho this morning, the weather is actually slightly chilly. The backyard weather station says the temperature is 52 F, the relative humidity is 87%, the relative pressure is 30.27 in Hg and steady, and the winds are calm.
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts a mostly sunny day with isolated showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 84 F. The chances of precipitation are 20% and the winds will be 5-10 mph from the southwest. This evening will be partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 60 F. The chance of precipitation will be 30%, and the winds will be 5-10 mph from the northwest. The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning the heavy rains that are possible today. While localized flooding is still possible, the likelihood of flooding has decreased from Sunday.
The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.
The enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows no thick clouds over the state this morning. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The water vapor satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough cycling through New Mexico and headed northeast. This shortwave will bring a small chance of severe weather to Nebraska and Iowa later today. There is a pocket of dry air behind this trough.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque is unavailable at this time.
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show a map full of zeroes- very little wind and clear skies throughout the entire state. The humidity is high, as the surface dewpoint approaches the surface temperature. There are no major frontal boundaries present over the state this morning.
The surface pressure map shows slightly higher pressure (1016 mb) over the state this morning, with a moderate pressure gradient across Colorado towards the trough. However, there are no strong pressure gradients over the state this morning. The RAP shows that none are expected to develop in the next six hours.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows a closed, upper-level low over Saskatchewan that will continue to move east. Lagging behind it slightly is the trough that dips through New Mexico. By this evening, there will be weak jetstreak that will pass through the central part of the state.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows no significant vorticity advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows only a small pocket of weakly-rising air over western New Mexico this afternoon.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Precipitation chart shows that there is a dry stripe through the state behind the leading edge of the trough. The Albuquerque Metro area is in this stripe.
Overall, I expect that today will perhaps be a little drier in Albuquerque than it has been for several days. There may be some rain, but the chances are smaller than they’ve been for the last few days. I think I may get to enjoy the weather for a day or two.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC