There was no precipitation in Rio Rancho yesterday, nor was there any in Albuquerque, Belen, Los Lunas, or Socorro.
In Rio Rancho this morning, the weather is clear, still and mild. The backyard weather station says the temperature is 64.4 F, the relative humidity is 43%, the relative pressure is 30.33 in Hg and steady, and the winds are 1.6 mph from the south.
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts a mostly sunny day today, with a high temperature of 88 F and east winds at 5 mph, becoming south later in the day. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 61 F and a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Winds will be from the northeast at 5 mph. The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning the potential for storms this evening. Storm coverage will increase, particularly in the northwestern part of the state, where small hail, gusty winds, and localized flooding are possible.
The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.
The enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows no thick clouds over the state today. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The water vapor satellite imagery shows that there has been significant moisture return behind the trough, giving us broad, deep moisture this morning. The trough is still visible across Texas as an area of dry air aloft.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque is unavailable at this time.
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures, lower dewpoints (as compared to yesterday), still winds and clear skies.
The surface pressure map shows no major pressure gradients over the state this morning. The RAP shows that none are expected to develop over the next six hours.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows little flow aloft over the state by this afternoon.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows no significant vorticity advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows no rapidly-rising air over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows some weak Cold Air Advection (CAA) over the eastern edge of the state as colder air blows across the thermal gradient.
The Precipitation chart shows that some rain is expected in most of the state by this evening, with the exception of the southeastern corner.
Overall, I expect a pleasant day. I am not seeing where our thunderstorm coverage will come from, given the non-existent rising air at the 700 mb, no major frontal boundaries, and limited sources of lift. However, given the water vapor imagery, there is plenty of moisture in the atmosphere, so I can see why heavy rains are expected. I’ll be watching conditions this afternoon to watch this situation unfold.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC