Long Range Forecasting: 8/14/16-8/21/16

I meant to post this last night, but judging by the long string of “s” that was near the end of this post, I fell asleep at the keyboard instead of posting.

It’s time to look ahead at the long range forecast, as told by the GFS model.

The 300 mb GFS charts show that we are still under the trough this evening.

This pattern will move farther north, with troughs not digging as deep throughout the week. By the end of the week, we will enter into a split-flow pattern, with zonal flow over the state.

The 500 mb GFS charts show very little vorticity advection over the state. The image below shows a small vorticity maxima southeast of Farmington. That’s about as much excitement as we can expect during this upcoming week.

The 700 mb GFS charts show moderate to high upward vertical velocities in the early part of the week. These taper off by Friday.

The 850 mb GFS charts show Cold Air Advection (CAA) fighting to get into the eastern part of New Mexico almost every day next week. The most promising chance is on Saturday, where air pushes in from near the Kansas/Nebraska border.

The Precipitation chart shows that this upcoming week will be drier than it has been over the last few days. Even so, there was a rain later this week.

Thank you for reading my post.

GFS Model Data is from Unisys Weather

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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