Yesterday, we dodged all of the rain. Around 1:00 am, a heavy rain storm hit Rio Rancho. It was just rain, and the sound of the rain woke me up. I don’t know how much precipitation we received, but it looked like a good ground-soaking rain.
In Rio Rancho this morning, the weather is mostly cloudy. The backyard weather station says the temperature is 64.8 F, the relative humidity is 85%, the relative pressure is 30.28 in Hg and steady, and the winds are 2.2 mph from the southeast.
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts a partly sunny day today, with a high temperature of 91 F and a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph, increasing to 10-15 mph by the afternoon. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 63 F. Winds will be from the northwest at 10-15 mph, decreasing to 5-10 mph by midnight. The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning scattered showers and thunderstorms over the southeastern part of the state. Storms will produce locally heavy rainfall and may lead to flash flooding.
The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.
The enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows that there is some cloud cover over much of the state. Clouds are thin, with low, warm tops, however.
The water vapor satellite imagery shows broad, deep moisture over the state this morning.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque is unavailable at this time.
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show light winds, clear skies, mild temperatures and high dewpoints all over the state. There are no major boundaries present over the state so far this morning.
The surface pressure map shows no strong pressure gradients over the state today. The RAP shows none developing in the next six hours.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows that the trough still digs into the southwest, but had not moved much in the past 24 hours.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows no strong vorticity advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows some rapidly-rising air just ahead of the trough. There is some rapidly sinking air a little farther away from the trough.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows no significant thermal advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Precipitation chart shows that much of the state may receive rainfall, but the heavier rainfall is concentrated in the southern half of the state.
Overall, I expect that there could be some more rain today. However, it looks like there might be a drying trend for the evening and into tomorrow. Also, when I see the 700 mb NAM chart with both rapidly-rising air adjacent to rapidly-sinking air in the mountains, that often means there will be stronger winds in this area. Perhaps it will be breezy in the central part of the state by 0Z.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC