Long Range Forecast: 8/7/16-8/14/16

Oops, I hit “Publish” before putting any content in here!

It’s time to look ahead at the long range forecast, as told by the GFS model.

The 300 mb GFS charts show that there will finally be some flow aloft, as a closed low and upper-level trough dig into New Mexico by Thursday evening. This trough is incredibly slow-moving, even though the low will continue to trek east. Through the rest of the week, the trough will persist over New Mexico.

The 500 mb GFS charts show some Positive Vorticity Advection (PVA) ahead of the cold front that will extend from the upper-level low all the way through the southwest and into Mexico by Thursday evening.

There will be more PVA on Sunday evening as well.

The 700 mb GFS charts show strong positive Upward Vertical Velocities (UVV) ahead of the cold front (and associated with the PVA) by Thursday evening.

There will be strong, localized UVV in the southwestern corner of the state on Sunday evening, ahead of the PVA on Sunday as well. Otherwise, there are moderate UVV values for most of the week, particularly in the northeastern corner of the state.

The 850 mb GFS charts show several days of cooler temperatures over the state. Notice on each of these charts that there is a stripe of cooler air running from southwest to northeast through the state. This stripe of cooler air is associated with the cold front, but do notice that on the backside of the stripe, there is more hot air and standard thermal low development near the Four Corners area.

The Precipitation charts show a drier week this week as compared to last. The cold front will bring some rainfall to New Mexico, but overall rainfall coverage is limited throughout the next week.

One other notable exception will be in the southwestern part of the state on Sunday, when that one vorticity maxima jogs slightly north. This may prompt heavy rains in this area.

Thank you for reading my post.

GFS Model Data is from Unisys Weather


About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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