Yesterday, we had quite a bit of rain. I looked at the gauge and it said the hourly total was 0.57 inches, but that may not have captured the full event. Below is a radar image from the storm that passed overhead.
In Rio Rancho this morning, the weather is mild, mostly sunny and still. The backyard weather station says the temperature is 77.2 F, the relative humidity is 52%, the relative pressure is 30.28 in Hg and steady, and the winds are 2.2 mph from the south.
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts a partly sunny day, with a high temperature of 89 F and a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms. The winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph, shifting to the southwest in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 65 F and a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph, shifting to the north by midnight. The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning the rain and potential for flooding through this evening.
The visible satellite imagery shows some left-over anvil debris, particularly over the southwestern corner of the state this morning.
The enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows that none of the clouds over the state are very thick, and all have low, warm tops. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is a deep axis of moisture over the state again today.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows another humid day, with moderate to low dewpoint depressions and a 1.04 inches of precipitable water present in the column. There was 993 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -196 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH) over Albuquerque this morning. There was a strong, deep thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.1 C/km.
The deep-layer shear was 11 kts, and the low-level shear was 6 kts. Shear was a mixture of speed and directional changes at all levels.
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures, high surface dewpoints, still winds, and clear skies over most of the state this morning. There are no major boundaries present over the state so far this morning.
The surface pressure map shows no strong pressure gradients over the state this morning, and the RAP shows that none are expected to develop over the next six hours.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows a little bit of southwesterly flow aloft this evening, as a closed, upper-level low intensifies near the Pacific Northwest.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows that there will be some Positive Vorticity Advection (PVA) moving northeast into the northeastern corner of the state this evening, as a small vorticity maximum migrates towards Kansas.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows no rapidly-rising air over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows no significant thermal advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Precipitation chart shows that much of the state could receive a trace amount of rain or more, with an area near Silver City receiving up to 0.375 inches.
Overall, I expect some areas will get rain, though I am concerned about the lack of rising air at the 700 mb level. Having said that, Upward Vertical Velocities (UVV) were low yesterday, and we got quite a bit of rain. I am also happy to write something different for that 300 mb chart, as I was about to start copying and pasting that whole section.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC