We did get some rain last night, off and on from about 7 pm until I went to bed at midnight. The ground is still damp this morning.
In Rio Rancho this morning, the weather is mild, humid, still and partly cloudy. The backyard weather station says the temperature is 80.6 F, the relative humidity is 51%, the relative pressure is 30.28 in Hg and steady, and the winds are 1.6 mph from the northwest.
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts a mostly cloudy day today, with a high temperature of 87 F and a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Winds will be from the east at 10-15 mph, shifting south by the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 65 F and a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph, shifting north after midnight. We are still under a Flash Flood Watch as well as a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning the high rainfall rates and flooding potential, as shown in the NWS graphic below:
The visible satellite imagery shows some clouds, particularly in the northwestern corner of the state and along the mountain ridges.
The enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows that a few of these clouds are moderately thick, with cool, moderately-high tops.
The water vapor satellite imagery shows that New Mexico is still in an area of rich moisture this morning.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a humid sounding under 450 mb, with low dewpoint depressions and 1.18 inches of precipitable water present in the column. There was 288 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -175 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH). There was no strong thermal inversion and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.7 C/km.
The deep-layer shear was 28 kts, and the low-level shear was 20 kts. Shear is a mixture of speed and directional changes this morning.
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures, high dewpoints, slow wind velocities and mostly clear skies over the state this morning. There is a dryline that runs through the eastern third of the state.
The surface pressure map shows no strong pressure gradients over the state this morning. The RAP shows that none are expected to develop over the next six hours.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows no flow over the state again today, though a trough dips down into southern California, so perhaps that will change for us in the near future.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows no strong vorticity advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows rapidly-rising air over the I-40 corridor by this evening.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows some weak Cold Air Advection (CAA) moving into the southeastern corner of the state.
The Precipitation chart shows that much of the state may receive a trace of rain by this evening.
Overall, I expect another rainy day. Monsoon season is actually producing some rain this week, and I am pleased.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC