Yesterday, there was some rain in Rio Rancho, as there was a Flash Flood Warning issued for parts of Sandoval County. When I was going to bed, there was a thunderstorm and light rain, but I did not record the amount.
In Rio Rancho this morning, the weather was mild, humid, still and mostly sunny. The left-over anvil material has been mixing out.
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts a mostly cloudy day today, with a high temperature of 87 F and a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Winds will be 5-10 mph from the northeast, shifting to the south by the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy with a low temperature of 66 F and a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Winds will be 5-10 mph from the south, shifting east. The NWS has issued a Flash Flood Watch and a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning the high flood potential over the next few days. The flood threat is greatest in urban areas, near burn scars, and west of the line between Raton and the Bosque.
The visible satellite imagery shows that most of the state is still under cloud cover this morning.
The enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows that all of the clouds have low, warm tops.
The water vapor satellite imagery shows that New Mexico is still under an area of broad, deep moisture.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows another humid day today in the Albuquerque Metro area. There was 1.23 inches of precipitable water and low dewpoint depressions throughout the column. There was 669 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -101 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH). There was only a very tiny thermal inversion and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.5 C/km.
The deep-layer shear was 11 kts, and the low-level shear was 13 kts. Shear at all levels was due largely to directional changes.
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show light winds, moistly clear skies, mild temperatures and high dewpoints, statewide this morning. There are no major boundaries present over the state so far this morning.
The surface pressure map shows no strong pressure gradients over the state this morning. The RAP shows that none are expected to develop over the next six hours.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows virtually no flow over the state today.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows no significant vorticity advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows some rapidly-rising air over the western part of the state again today.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows no significant thermal advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Precipitation chart shows that rain is expected over most of the state today, with heavy rainfall expected in several areas this afternoon.
Overall, I expect another rainy day today, in spite of the clear skies this morning. My garden is loving all of this rain, I’m sure. If it going to be humid, I’d just assume we get the precipitation, as if I had a say in the matter.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC