Yesterday, there were a few storms that fired all over the state. I saw photos on my Facebook feed of the shelf cloud in Albuquerque, though I was in Socorro. In Socorro, a few storms popped to our south. , but I don’t think anything reached severe limits.
In Socorro this morning, the weather was warm, still and mostly cloudy. The NMT Campus Macey Center sign said the temperature was 78 F at 8:55 am.
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts partly sunny skies, with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 89 F. Northwest winds at 5 mph will shift to the east by the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 71 F. The southeast winds at 5-10 mph will shift to the northeast by midnight. The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning the storms this afternoon. The primary threats will be heavy rainfall (up to 2 inches), gusty winds (up to 50 mph) and small hail.
The visible satellite imagery shows clouds over most of the state. Locations west of the central mountain chain have mostly cloudy to overcast skies.
The enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows that none of the clouds are very thick, as all have low, warm tops.
The water vapor satellite imagery shows that a broad swath of moisture still lingers over the state at the 700 mb to 400 mb level.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows another damp sounding today, with low dewpoint depressions and 1.22 inches of precipitable water present in the column. There was 548 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -64 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH) this morning. There was no strong thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.8 C/km.
The deep-layer shear was 6 kts, and the low-level shear was 9 kts. Shear at all levels was due largely to directional changes.
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures, still winds, high dewpoints and some cloud cover this morning. There is a weak dryline running through the eastern third of the state this morning.
The surface pressure map shows no strong pressure gradients over the state this morning. The RAP shows that none are expected to develop in the next six hours.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows almost no flow aloft today. The 300 mb NAM winds are only lightly zonal.
The 500 mb NAM chart showed no significant vorticity advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows rapidly-rising air over much of the state today. It is not very strong, but it is widespread.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows a relief from the heat as temperatures have dropped, and there is still some slight Cold Air Advection (CAA) nosing its way into the state from the southeast.
The precipitation chart shows that much of the state could see rain today.
Overall, I expect scattered showers today. Today is probably the best chance of showers and storms we’ve seen in a while. The precipitable water is high, there is some convection (shown on the 700 mb NAM chart), and the sounding is damp throughout. Storms will likely be large rain producers, and given their slow motion, could be a threat for flash flooding.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC