In Rio Rancho this morning, the weather was hot, still and clear. The backyard weather station says the temperature is 90.5 F, the relative humidity is 17%, the relative pressure is 30.24 in Hg and slowly rising, and the winds are 5.4 mph from the northwest.
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts a sunny and hot day today, with a high temperature of 98 F and west winds of 10-15 mph. This evening will be mostly clear with a low temperature of 65 F, and west winds of 10-15 mph tapering off to 5-10 mph by midnight. The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook and a Heat Advisory concerning the high temperatures today, as shown in the graphic below:
The visible satellite imagery and the enhanced infrared satellite imagery show that there are no clouds over the state today. These images have been excluded from today’s post.
The water vapor satellite imagery shows no major moisture features over the state today. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a dry sounding this morning. The dewpoint depressions were high and there was 0.47 inches of precipitable water in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and a small thermal inversion near the surface. The 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.4 C/km.
The deep-layer shear was 39 kts, and the low-level shear was 24 kts. The low-level shear was due to directional changes, and the deep-layer shear was due to speed changes.
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show the high temperatures, low dewpoints and clear skies, statewide today.
The surface pressure map shows no strong pressure gradients over the state today. The RAP shows that none are expected to develop in the next six hours.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows zonal flow over the state today. The winds are stronger in the northern part of the state at the 300 mb level.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows no significant vorticity advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows no rapidly-rising air over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post
The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today. However, notice the extremely high 850 mb temperatures over the eastern half of the state. Also, there is some Cold Air Advection (CAA) moving west across Texas that will hopefully affect us later this week.
Overall, I expect a hot day with little relief from the heat. I wanted to work in my garden and go for a run, but I don’t think I will do much of either this morning.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC