In Rio Rancho this morning, there was a little thunderstorm to our south. The backyard weather station says the temperature is 69.8 F, the relative humidity is 53%, the relative pressure is 30.34 in Hg and steady, and the winds are 1.6 mph from the southeast. Here is a picture of part of a rainbow that was to my south, first thing this morning.
Here is a current radar image, showing the small thunderstorms to the south.
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts a partly sunny day today, with isolated shower and thunderstorms (20% chance of precipitation), a high temperature of 90 F and south winds of 5-10 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms, a low temperature of 67 F. The winds will be 5-10 mph from the south, shifting to northwest by this evening. The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning heavy rainfall and runoff flooding potential for the storms that will occur today.
The visible satellite imagery shows the morning convection around the Albuquerque Metro area.
The enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows that none of the morning convection is very strong; all of it has low, warm tops.
The water vapor satellite imagery shows mostly-uniform moisture over the state, though a few convective cells are showing up brighter on this image.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows another humid, well-mixed day today, with 0.96 inches of precipitable water and low dewpoint depressions throughout the column. The surface dewpoint was 52 F. There was 153 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -289 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH). There was a tiny thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 7.1 C/km.
The deep-layer shear was 11 kts, and the low-level shear was 9 kts. The shear at all levels was due to directional changes.
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show milder temperatures this morning and still winds. There are no strong boundaries over the state, though a dryline may appear in the eastern third of the state- it’s not very strong at this time.
The surface pressure map shows no strong pressure gradients over the state this morning. The RAP shows that none are expected to develop over the next six hours.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows very little flow aloft.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows no significant vorticity advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows some rapidly-rising air over the northwestern part of the state today. There is also a pocket over eastern Utah, where I will be driving later today.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows some Cold Air Advection (CAA) moving into the eastern part of the state. The gradient is not very strong, but the winds blow across it.
Overall, I expect some showers and thunderstorms throughout the state (they’re already firing) and the NWS is saying that an upper-level disturbance is moving out of the Gulf, which may trigger our monsoon season.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC