In Rio Rancho this morning, the weather is warm, sunny and still. The backyard weather station says the temperature is 76.8 F, the relative humidity is 53%, the relative pressure 30.45 is in Hg and steady, and the winds are 0.7 mph from the east.
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts a mostly sunny day today, with a high temperature of 91 F and northeast winds becoming southeast at 5-10 mph by the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 10% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 66 F. The winds will be from the east, but shift south at 5-10 mph. The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning isolated, localized flooding potential, depending on where the isolated showers form.
The visible satellite imagery shows clear skies over most of the state, though there is some cloud cover over the southeastern corner, and lighter clouds just west of the Rio Grande River Valley.
The enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows no thick clouds this morning. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The water vapor satellite imagery shows uniform moisture and no major upper-level features over the state this morning. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows another humid day today, with 0.84 inches of precipitable water present in the column today. It was also a well-mixed morning, with a surface dewpoint of 58 F and low dewpoint depressions throughout the column. There was 1322 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and only -63 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH). There was a small thermal inversion near 650 mb, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 7.2 C/km.
The deep-layer shear was 10 kts, and the low-level shear was 9 kts. Like yesterday, the light winds shift direction 180 degrees about half way up the column.
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show clear skies, high dewpoints, and still winds. There is a dryline that runs through the eastern third of the state.
The surface pressure map shows 1022 mb high pressure near the NM/CO border this morning. There are no strong pressure gradients present.
The RAP shows that over the next six hours, a thermal low will develop over the Colorado Rockies, but there will be no strong pressure gradients develop.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows that we remain in a weak, zonal flow regime, with almost no upper-level winds.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows no significant vorticity advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows no rapidly-rising air over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows no significant thermal advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
Overall, I expect a hot, relatively humid day today. I expect there will be showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, especially given the CAPE and the moisture content, though there seems to be no major synoptic lift. Storms that form will likely remain below severe limits, due to the limited shear and lift.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC